Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

072
FXUS65 KBYZ 030907
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
207 AM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Turning unsettled and cooler early next week.

- Periods of gusty/strong winds western foothills through the
  week. Winds may be especially strong Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Today through Wednesday night...

Warmer and dry conditions are expected today, then a disturbance
brings slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

Northwest flow continues aloft with a strong upper level ridge
over the west coast which will slide a bit east today. This will
help boost temps today with readings well above normal ranging
from upper 50s west and mid 40s east. Cooler air backs into the
area from the northeast on Wednesday thanks to an upper
disturbance tracking out of Canada into the Dakotas. Still cannot
rule out a few flurries Wednesday afternoon over far SE Montana
with this front, but overall the system looks dry for our area.
Highs on Wednesday will range from lower 50s in the western
foothills to around 30 on the Dakota border.

Winds will remain elevated and gusty over the west today due to
a favorable pressure gradient over the foothills. Guidance
signals continue to suggest a 50 to 70 percent chance of 50+ mph
for Big Timber to Harlowton today, with a bit lower chance at
Livingston due to the west/east orientation of the gradient. Gusts
40 to 50 mph will likely be common across the foothills and nearby
I-90 and US-191 corridors. We have kept wind speeds up over NBM
guidance to get closer to the guidance suggestion. For tonight
into Wednesday morning models are trending toward a weakening of
the gradient with gusts 30 to 40 mph more likely. Then for
Wednesday, the arrival of the back door cold front should disrupt
the gradient by afternoon and bring an end to elevated wind
gusts. As the cold air quickly retreats back east Wednesday night,
we should see winds increase again in the Livingston/Nye gap
areas overnight. BT

Thursday through Tuesday...

Extended forecast continues to look dry with above normal
temperatures and windy conditions in the foothills through
Saturday. Forecast area remains on the eastern side of the ridge
under NW flow on Thursday. Dry weather continues with windy
conditions in the W. Similar pattern continues on Friday. Saturday
continues to show a westerly flow or upper ridging with
increasing 700 mb winds, supportive of windy conditions in the W.
These winds combined with the pressure gradient would support wind
highlights if the forecast does not change. Best chances of temps
rising above 50 degrees remain on Saturday. Nudged wind speeds by
60 percent toward the NBM 90th percentile through Saturday.

Sunday has a fast westerly or weakly cyclonic flow per the
Clusters. Low to moderate precipitation chances move in for Sat.
night through Sun. night. Sunday will be cooler, in the 40s, as
deterministic models show a possible cold front dropping S through
the area. Precipitation type looks to be mainly rain Sat. night.
Rain will mix with snow during Sunday. NAEFS supports windy conditions
for Sunday in line with ECMWF meteograms. Sunday looked breezy to
windy across the entire area. Upper trough progged to be E and SE
of the forecast area on Monday with the region under cyclonic to
NNW flow. It will be cooler with highs in the 30s, with low to
moderate chances of snow. Fast NNW flow will be over the region on
Tuesday with a dry and slightly warmer forecast. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail today through tonight. Cannot rule out a few
stratus E of KBIL along with patchy fog through early this
morning. Chances for stratus and fog increase again in the E late
tonight. W to NW surface winds will gust to 35 to 45 kt in the
foothills, affecting KLVM, K6S0 and K3HT. Winds will remain gusty
tonight in these areas. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 026/042 024/050 032/053 036/055 037/046 028/039
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/N    22/O    32/S
LVM 057 030/052 031/053 031/052 035/054 032/041 023/037
    0/N 00/N    00/U    00/N    01/N    33/O    32/S
HDN 053 021/041 020/049 026/054 030/055 033/047 026/038
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    24/R    33/S
MLS 043 022/031 015/038 022/048 029/054 034/045 025/035
    0/U 00/B    10/B    00/U    00/B    12/R    22/S
4BQ 053 026/037 021/046 027/052 032/056 035/046 024/035
    0/U 00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    13/R    22/S
BHK 043 019/029 008/037 019/047 026/052 030/044 018/032
    0/U 00/B    10/B    00/N    00/N    12/O    21/E
SHR 055 024/045 022/051 026/054 028/058 030/045 021/037
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    24/O    33/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings