Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

545
FXUS65 KBYZ 111826
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
1226 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through
  this evening. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
  producing wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Active weather through Tuesday, with periods of lower elevation
  rain showers and some mountain snow. Isolated thunderstorms
  possible again for Sunday.

- Another weather system (potentially cooler) late Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Friday...

Very warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast today, ahead of
a shortwave trough moving in from the southwest. Expect highs in
the 70s ato low 80sF (warmest in the east). The Billings Airport
has a forecast high of 77F which is only 3 degrees below the daily
record high of 80F.

As the shortwave moves into the region this afternoon, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to form off of
the mountains and foothills. Storms are not expected to be strong,
with the main impacts being gusty and erratic winds. There is
decent instability around for potential storms to use, with up to
500 J/kg of surface CAPE. To go along with this, steep lapse rates
of >8 C/km will allow for deep mixing. The Storm Prediction
Center added much of the forecast area to a Marginal Risk (1/5)
for this afternoon due to the threat for a few stronger wind gusts
up to 60 mph. Generally though, gusts in the 40s to 50 mph will
be the primary concerns. As the wave moves east, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will decrease through the evening.

The aforementioned trough will continue a slow progression into
the Northern Rockies, Sunday into Tuesday. Temperatures look to be
a bit cooler than today, though highs remain above normal in the
60s to low 70sF for Sunday. An additional chance for showers and
thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon. Surface flow will be
out of the east to northeast, bringing in moisture from the Gulf.
Destabilization looks better tomorrow, as less cloud cover will
be around in the west. The latest HiRes runs have showers and
storms forming off of the mountains again and moving north-east.
Like today, the threat for gusty and erratic winds will be the
primary concern.

For the weekend, the chance of appreciable moisture is dependent
on shower/storm location, even then storms do not look like they
will be heavy rain producers. Monday and Tuesday, the chance for
precipitation is moderate, with showers and a weak thunderstorm or
two. The latest model and forecast runs have continued the trend
of less widespread precipitation. The latest probability for at
least 0.25" of precip Sunday through Tuesday is 20-60% across the
lower elevations, greatest in the west-central zones. In the
mountains, snow levels will fall towards 8,000 feet, bringing a
few inches (1-4", locally greater amounts for the highest
southwest facing peaks) of snowfall.

Rainfall is expected to stay below 8,000 ft, so there is no
concern for rain on snow in the higher terrain. Ensembles then
show a little break with additional energy moving in late
Wednesday through Friday. There is still some uncertainty on the
timing of these systems, but is there is agreement that cooler
conditions will return by the end of the week.

The current forecast has high temperatures in the 50s and 60sF
Tuesday-Wednesday, 40s and 50sF for Thursday, and 30s to mid 40sF
on Friday. Continue to monitor the forecast if you have outdoor
plans this week.

Matos

.AVIATION...

18z TAF Discussion...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday.
Wind gusts out of the southwest in the 20 to 30kt range can be
expected from Billings west into the foothills this afternoon,
shifting to the west by 00z. Wind speeds will weaken 5 to 10kts
this evening but will remain elevated until the early morning
hours.

Scattered afternoon and evening showers, with isolated
thunderstorms, are expected across the forecast area. Convective
initiation will take place over the western mountains and
potentially over SE Montana by 21z, with convection moving
northeast. Wind gusts of 25 to 40kts will be common with this
relatively high based convection (small inverted-V soundings,
with a small chance (~5%) for a gust around 50kts. Only light
precipitation is expected from this convective activity with
localized MVFR conditions near precipitation areas. Convection
continues into the late night hours over SE Montana into the
Dakotas, following the path of a weak disturbance transiting the
area. Mostly clear conditions and calmer winds expected by sunrise
Sunday as the disturbance exits to the east. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/069 041/062 041/065 042/064 035/047 027/048 028/059
    24/W    46/W    42/W    13/W    67/W    43/J    11/U
LVM 038/064 038/056 036/059 036/056 032/044 022/044 024/055
    44/T    37/T    52/W    15/W    77/J    43/J    12/W
HDN 043/071 041/065 039/066 039/066 034/050 025/049 025/059
    34/W    57/W    53/W    13/W    67/W    53/J    22/W
MLS 048/069 044/063 040/064 039/065 035/051 024/044 025/055
    23/U    56/T    42/W    11/B    44/W    32/J    11/B
4BQ 047/069 042/065 039/062 039/066 036/055 024/044 025/055
    32/U    25/W    33/W    11/U    34/W    43/J    11/U
BHK 045/069 040/062 036/062 037/065 034/053 022/041 021/050
    31/U    35/T    32/W    11/B    33/W    32/J    11/B
SHR 039/067 037/060 032/060 033/064 032/050 022/044 021/054
    32/W    36/W    45/W    11/B    47/W    54/J    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings